Turkey · USDA PSD

Turkey wheat: yield nowcast

Mostly rain-fed winter wheat on the Anatolian plateau, where spring rain makes the crop. Seven weather points and eleven provinces of satellite data. USDA's WASDE has no Turkey line, so the bar is the trend.

2011–2025seasons backtested, retrained each year on earlier seasons only

0.24t/ha RMSE on 1 Apr (trend 0.23)

0.21t/ha RMSE on 1 Jul (trend 0.23)

71%of final yields inside the 80% interval, all dates

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Every forecast, season by season

Pick a harvest year, a forecast date and a region. Everything updates: the forecast with its 80% interval, how the view moved through the season, and how this forecast date has scored over all seasons.

From orbit NOAA satellites

The crop, seen from space

Weekly vegetation health over the wheat area, 4 km pixels masked to wheat fields. The nowcast for this origin uses these satellite readings, each only once the week has been published. All origins on the satellite page →

This season against every season since 2000

VHI combines greenness (VCI) and heat stress (TCI); below 40 the crop is under stress.

Every season, week by week

Red: stress. Blue: healthy canopy.

Does the satellite see the yield?

Correlation r = 0.64 over 15 seasons.