Track record
Every forecast, as published
Every nowcast of every origin is sealed in a permanent record, published before the USDA report it anticipates and time-stamped by independent certification authorities. No forecast can be edited, removed or back-dated after the fact.
Live record
Live forecasts
Published automatically: weekly in each origin's season, and on the morning of every WASDE release. Each forecast is scored once USDA publishes the outcome; a run that fails is recorded as missed, not skipped.
2 entries since 2026-11-10. Record intact, 3 independent timestamps. Download the full record.
| # | Published (UTC) | Origin | Forecast date | Nowcast | USDA at the time | Outcome | Fingerprint |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2026-11-10 09:08:25 | Australia | 2026-11-10 | sealed until 24 Nov | 2a8402328b5f | ||
| 1 | 2026-11-10 09:08:25 | Argentina | 2026-11-10 | sealed until 24 Nov | 25eaced84618 |
How the record is protected
- Every forecast gets a digital fingerprint the moment it is published, and each fingerprint also seals the one before it: no past forecast can be changed, removed or back-dated without the whole record showing it.
- After each update the record is time-stamped by independent certification authorities, so the publication time does not rest on our word.
- Recent forecasts in the free edition are sealed: only the fingerprint is shown until the delay ends, and the numbers published then must match it.
- Auditors and clients can check every entry themselves; we provide the step-by-step guide on request.
Backtest not live
How the method would have done
Pseudo-real-time reconstruction: each forecast uses only data published by its date, re-estimated on earlier seasons. Final yields are today's revised values. Aggregate yield of each origin.
| Origin | Date | Seasons | Nowcast RMSE | Trend RMSE | Error vs trend | 80% coverage | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 1 Apr | 15 | 3.87 | 5.76 | -33% | 87% | bu/ac |
| United States | 15 Apr | 15 | 4.11 | 5.76 | -29% | 87% | bu/ac |
| United States | 1 May | 15 | 3.62 | 5.76 | -37% | 80% | bu/ac |
| United States | 15 May | 15 | 3.25 | 5.76 | -44% | 87% | bu/ac |
| United States | 1 Jun | 15 | 2.98 | 5.76 | -48% | 80% | bu/ac |
| United States | 15 Jun | 15 | 2.95 | 5.76 | -49% | 73% | bu/ac |
| United States | 1 Jul | 15 | 3.02 | 5.76 | -48% | 87% | bu/ac |
| France | 1 Apr | 13 | 0.69 | 0.78 | -12% | 85% | t/ha |
| France | 15 Apr | 13 | 0.64 | 0.78 | -19% | 77% | t/ha |
| France | 1 May | 13 | 0.78 | 0.78 | -1% | 77% | t/ha |
| France | 15 May | 13 | 0.81 | 0.78 | +3% | 85% | t/ha |
| France | 1 Jun | 13 | 0.71 | 0.78 | -9% | 92% | t/ha |
| France | 15 Jun | 13 | 0.67 | 0.78 | -15% | 85% | t/ha |
| France | 1 Jul | 13 | 0.60 | 0.78 | -23% | 77% | t/ha |
| Russia | 1 Apr | 15 | 0.30 | 0.28 | +9% | 73% | t/ha |
| Russia | 15 Apr | 15 | 0.25 | 0.28 | -10% | 80% | t/ha |
| Russia | 1 May | 15 | 0.25 | 0.28 | -9% | 73% | t/ha |
| Russia | 15 May | 15 | 0.28 | 0.28 | +0% | 80% | t/ha |
| Russia | 1 Jun | 15 | 0.24 | 0.28 | -15% | 67% | t/ha |
| Russia | 15 Jun | 15 | 0.21 | 0.28 | -23% | 60% | t/ha |
| Russia | 1 Jul | 15 | 0.20 | 0.28 | -29% | 80% | t/ha |
| Ukraine | 1 Apr | 15 | 0.41 | 0.35 | +16% | 73% | t/ha |
| Ukraine | 15 Apr | 15 | 0.38 | 0.35 | +7% | 73% | t/ha |
| Ukraine | 1 May | 15 | 0.34 | 0.35 | -2% | 80% | t/ha |
| Ukraine | 15 May | 15 | 0.33 | 0.35 | -7% | 80% | t/ha |
| Ukraine | 1 Jun | 15 | 0.34 | 0.35 | -4% | 80% | t/ha |
| Ukraine | 15 Jun | 15 | 0.31 | 0.35 | -12% | 80% | t/ha |
| Ukraine | 1 Jul | 15 | 0.38 | 0.35 | +8% | 73% | t/ha |
| Argentina | 1 Aug | 15 | 0.45 | 0.45 | +0% | 73% | t/ha |
| Argentina | 1 Sep | 15 | 0.43 | 0.45 | -4% | 67% | t/ha |
| Argentina | 15 Sep | 15 | 0.58 | 0.45 | +28% | 80% | t/ha |
| Argentina | 1 Oct | 15 | 0.42 | 0.45 | -6% | 73% | t/ha |
| Argentina | 15 Oct | 15 | 0.45 | 0.45 | +1% | 67% | t/ha |
| Argentina | 1 Nov | 15 | 0.43 | 0.45 | -5% | 67% | t/ha |
| Argentina | 15 Nov | 15 | 0.44 | 0.45 | -1% | 73% | t/ha |
| Australia | 1 Aug | 15 | 0.27 | 0.48 | -44% | 93% | t/ha |
| Australia | 1 Sep | 15 | 0.33 | 0.48 | -31% | 73% | t/ha |
| Australia | 15 Sep | 15 | 0.30 | 0.48 | -37% | 73% | t/ha |
| Australia | 1 Oct | 15 | 0.26 | 0.48 | -46% | 93% | t/ha |
| Australia | 15 Oct | 15 | 0.31 | 0.48 | -35% | 87% | t/ha |
| Australia | 1 Nov | 15 | 0.31 | 0.48 | -35% | 93% | t/ha |
| Australia | 15 Nov | 15 | 0.31 | 0.48 | -36% | 87% | t/ha |
| Canada | 15 Jun | 15 | 0.39 | 0.40 | -4% | 80% | t/ha |
| Canada | 1 Jul | 15 | 0.35 | 0.40 | -12% | 73% | t/ha |
| Canada | 15 Jul | 15 | 0.29 | 0.40 | -27% | 80% | t/ha |
| Canada | 1 Aug | 15 | 0.26 | 0.40 | -36% | 93% | t/ha |
| Canada | 15 Aug | 15 | 0.26 | 0.40 | -36% | 87% | t/ha |
| European Union | 1 Apr | 15 | 0.42 | 0.32 | +32% | 87% | t/ha |
| European Union | 15 Apr | 15 | 0.39 | 0.32 | +25% | 80% | t/ha |
| European Union | 1 May | 15 | 0.42 | 0.32 | +32% | 80% | t/ha |
| European Union | 15 May | 15 | 0.42 | 0.32 | +33% | 73% | t/ha |
| European Union | 1 Jun | 15 | 0.36 | 0.32 | +13% | 80% | t/ha |
| European Union | 15 Jun | 15 | 0.35 | 0.32 | +12% | 80% | t/ha |
| European Union | 1 Jul | 15 | 0.32 | 0.32 | +0% | 67% | t/ha |
| China | 1 Mar | 15 | 0.16 | 0.15 | +12% | 80% | t/ha |
| China | 15 Mar | 15 | 0.17 | 0.15 | +15% | 80% | t/ha |
| China | 1 Apr | 15 | 0.21 | 0.15 | +41% | 87% | t/ha |
| China | 15 Apr | 15 | 0.14 | 0.15 | -1% | 93% | t/ha |
| China | 1 May | 15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | -0% | 93% | t/ha |
| China | 15 May | 15 | 0.14 | 0.15 | -0% | 87% | t/ha |
| China | 1 Jun | 15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | -0% | 80% | t/ha |
| India | 15 Jan | 15 | 0.20 | 0.20 | +2% | 73% | t/ha |
| India | 1 Feb | 15 | 0.21 | 0.20 | +3% | 73% | t/ha |
| India | 15 Feb | 15 | 0.20 | 0.20 | +0% | 73% | t/ha |
| India | 1 Mar | 15 | 0.21 | 0.20 | +3% | 73% | t/ha |
| India | 15 Mar | 15 | 0.22 | 0.20 | +11% | 80% | t/ha |
| India | 1 Apr | 15 | 0.22 | 0.20 | +9% | 93% | t/ha |
| Pakistan | 15 Jan | 15 | 0.10 | 0.10 | +0% | 73% | t/ha |
| Pakistan | 1 Feb | 15 | 0.10 | 0.10 | +1% | 73% | t/ha |
| Pakistan | 15 Feb | 15 | 0.09 | 0.10 | -7% | 80% | t/ha |
| Pakistan | 1 Mar | 15 | 0.11 | 0.10 | +5% | 73% | t/ha |
| Pakistan | 15 Mar | 15 | 0.11 | 0.10 | +8% | 73% | t/ha |
| Pakistan | 1 Apr | 15 | 0.11 | 0.10 | +13% | 73% | t/ha |
| Turkey | 1 Apr | 15 | 0.24 | 0.23 | +5% | 73% | t/ha |
| Turkey | 15 Apr | 15 | 0.23 | 0.23 | -1% | 73% | t/ha |
| Turkey | 1 May | 15 | 0.22 | 0.23 | -5% | 73% | t/ha |
| Turkey | 15 May | 15 | 0.23 | 0.23 | -3% | 73% | t/ha |
| Turkey | 1 Jun | 15 | 0.21 | 0.23 | -9% | 73% | t/ha |
| Turkey | 15 Jun | 15 | 0.21 | 0.23 | -9% | 67% | t/ha |
| Turkey | 1 Jul | 15 | 0.21 | 0.23 | -10% | 67% | t/ha |
| Kazakhstan | 15 Jun | 15 | 0.23 | 0.26 | -13% | 93% | t/ha |
| Kazakhstan | 1 Jul | 15 | 0.19 | 0.26 | -28% | 67% | t/ha |
| Kazakhstan | 15 Jul | 15 | 0.19 | 0.26 | -28% | 67% | t/ha |
| Kazakhstan | 1 Aug | 15 | 0.22 | 0.26 | -15% | 80% | t/ha |
| Kazakhstan | 15 Aug | 15 | 0.26 | 0.26 | -3% | 73% | t/ha |