China · USDA PSD

China wheat: yield nowcast

The largest producer: winter wheat on the North China Plain, harvested in early June. Ten weather points and nine provinces of satellite data; national yield from USDA PSD (official statistics).

2011–2025seasons backtested, retrained each year on earlier seasons only

0.16t/ha RMSE on 1 Mar (trend 0.15)

0.15t/ha RMSE on 1 Jun (trend 0.15)

86%of final yields inside the 80% interval, all dates

Explore

Every forecast, season by season

Pick a harvest year, a forecast date and a region. Everything updates: the forecast with its 80% interval, how the view moved through the season, and how this forecast date has scored over all seasons.

From orbit NOAA satellites

The crop, seen from space

Weekly vegetation health over the wheat area, 4 km pixels masked to wheat fields. Shown for context: the nowcast for this origin does not rely on them (here they did not add accuracy). All origins on the satellite page →

This season against every season since 2000

VHI combines greenness (VCI) and heat stress (TCI); below 40 the crop is under stress.

Every season, week by week

Red: stress. Blue: healthy canopy.

Does the satellite see the yield?

Correlation r = 0.19 over 15 seasons.

Benchmark

Against USDA's WASDE

USDA's WASDE is ahead of the nowcast at every date. By July, with harvest results in, USDA is ahead (2.3% vs 2.6%).

Error by WASDE month

% of the final USDA PSD figure.

May forecasts, year by year

Below zero: the forecast was under the final crop.

Read with care. USDA forecasts production, so its error also includes area; the nowcast forecasts yield only. Part of USDA's early gap is area, not yield.