Yield nowcasts for 13 origins from weather and satellite data, EU cash prices and every USDA report, scored in the open against the official numbers.
Markets
World balance from USDA's latest WASDE. EU cash prices appear here once downloaded. All prices →
News
Every USDA report, every nowcast, the weekly satellite read and the EU cash market, as it happens.
Vegetation health index (0-100, below 40 is stress) of the 11 crops in season, against the normal for the week. Weakest: France 32 (-17), European Union 40 (-10), Russia 36 (-8). Strongest: Argentina 64 (+19), Turkey 64 (+14).
Vegetation health index (0-100, below 40 is stress) of the 11 crops in season, against the normal for the week. Weakest: France 31 (-20), European Union 39 (-11), Russia 37 (-7). Strongest: Argentina 64 (+19), Turkey 66 (+16).
Marketing year 2026/27. Major exporters' stocks-to-use 17.0% (+0.5 pt), US 39.8% (+1.6 pt), world ending stocks 276.0 Mt.
Marketing year 2026/27. Major exporters' stocks-to-use 16.5% (+1.1 pt), US 38.3% (+0.0 pt), world ending stocks 276.3 Mt.
Origins
The same model and backtest run on each origin; only the data and the crop calendar change. Each page has an interactive explorer.
Satellite vegetation health over every wheat region, week by week since 1982, and how it lines up with the yields.
Open the satellite map →From orbit satellite
NOAA satellite vegetation health over the wheat fields of 123 regions, last 52 weeks to 21 Oct 2026. Red is stress, blue is a healthy canopy. Press play. More on the satellite page →
What the backtest says
A model that knows its limits is more useful than one that claims to beat the market.
On 1 April the US belt error is 3.87 bu/ac against 5.76 for the trend, six weeks before USDA's first state forecast.
From mid-May the nowcast is about as accurate as USDA's own Crop Production forecast (3.25 vs 3.33 bu/ac on 15 May).
USDA's May numbers for Russia have run low; the nowcast was closer in 10 of 13 years. Satellite data cut the July error by a quarter.
Published USDA revisions explain about 10% of the report-day futures move. The value is in knowing the revision before it is published.
How it works
Weather from NASA POWER, USDA crop condition ratings, NOAA satellite vegetation health, each with its real publication lag.
A per-region trend times a ridge-regression anomaly, retrained for every forecast date on earlier seasons only.
Scored against the trend before May and against the latest USDA or MARS forecast available on the same day.
Every WASDE since 1995, kept as published, connects each crop to the world balance and to wheat prices.
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